Nuclear Risk Reduction

Our Issues

Fears of the use of nuclear weapons are steadily increasing, and the consequences could be catastrophic.

After four decades of steady decline in global nuclear weapons inventories, we face the possibility of a new and more dangerous arms race. With Russia’s suspension of the New START Treaty, the last remaining constraint on the world’s two largest nuclear powers is set to expire in 2026. The Department of Defense estimates that China could have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, creating a three-competitor future. At the same time, advances in artificial intelligence, including for military

applications, have injected new and evolving risks. President Trump has said he would welcome

“denuclearization” talks with China and Russia, following in the footsteps of President Ronald Reagan, who stated with Russia’s Mikhail Gorbachev that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” We ask Congress to support renewed nuclear diplomacy with Russia and China and reject actions such as the resumption of nuclear testing that would undermine strategic stability.

“Russia’s ‘suspension’ of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and its refusal to engage in talks on a New START follow-on agreement exacerbates the danger of an unconstrained arms race – not only between the owners of the world’s two largest nuclear weapons arsenals but also with China. There are no winners – only losers – in a nuclear arms race.”
— Senators Edward J. Markey and Jeff Merkley and Representatives Don Beyer Hear this quote in context Co-Chairs of the Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group

What You Can Do

To reverse these trends, U.S. diplomatic leadership will be essential to restore strategic stability and reduce the risk of intentional or accidental use of nuclear weapons. Engaging in bilateral and multilateral nuclear arms control and confidence-building talks—especially with Russia and China—is critical to nuclear risk reduction.

Together, the United States and Russia possess 90% of the global inventory of nuclear weapon, and the U.S. Department of Defense intelligence estimates project that China will field a stockpile of 1,500 warheads by 2035. U.S. lawmakers should resist political pressures for costly new weapons that contribute little to U.S. nuclear deterrence capabilities while heightening the risk of miscalculation and strategic instability and potentially fuel an arms race. Help reduce nuclear risk by calling your elected representatives and urging them to support new nuclear arms control negotiations with Russia and China.

Learn More

Nuclear Notebook Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The Crumbling Nuclear Order Foreign Affairs, 2024

America’s Nuclear Weapons Quagmire Stimson, 2024

The 2024 Presidential Race and the Nuclear Weapons Threat Arms Control Association, 2024

Dealing With a China That Will Not Talk Arms Control Association, 2024

Trump has a strategic plan for the country: Gearing up for nuclear war Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2024

Nuclear Risk Reduction