With Russia’s suspension of the New START Treaty, the last remaining constraint on the world’s two largest nuclear powers is set to expire in 2026. The Department of Defense estimates that China could have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, creating a three-competitor future. At the same time, advances in artificial intelligence, including for military applications, have injected new and evolving risks. President Trump has said he would welcome “denuclearization” talks with China and Russia, following in the footsteps of President Ronald Reagan, who stated with Russia’s Mikhail Gorbachev that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”
Call on Congress to support renewed nuclear diplomacy with Russia and China and reject actions such as the resumption of nuclear testing that would undermine strategic stability.
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In late October, President Trump announced that he had instructed the Department of Defense to start testing nuclear weapons on an “equal basis” as “other countries testing programs.” The vague announcement raised alarm around the world and speculation as to whether Trump meant the return to explosive nuclear testing, which the United States has not done since 1992 and has led to a nearly three decades long global moratorium on explosive nuclear testing. While Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that these would not be “nuclear explosions,” and instead “non-critical explosions,” confusion still remains as to what Trump intends given that the United States routinely conducts subcritical nuclear tests. Analysts suspect that Trump means the return to “hydronuclear tests,” a low yield explosive nuclear test, which the United States has not conducted since 1961.
With less than 100 days until the expiration of New START, the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the Trump administration has not yet begun dedicated negotiations with Russia for a follow-on agreement. Over the summer, President Trump acknowledged the need to maintain the expiring New START limitations, calling their expiration “a big problem for the world” and Russian President Putin publicly offered to voluntarily adhere to the treaty’s quantitative limits for an additional year. An initial draft text of the 28-point “Peace Plan” developed by the United States and Russia to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, included a provision that committed the U.S. and Russia would “extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty.” The reference indicates that central limits on deployed nuclear weapons, currently capped at 1,500 warheads in New START, could be increased more than 4 times to 6,000.
