Iran

Iran’s export of ideology and sponsorship of militant groups across the Middle East has created instability and hardened political rivalries in the region. The current crisis following Hamas’ attack on Israel and the escalating confrontation between Israel and Lebanon cannot be extricated from Iranian support for Hamas and Hezbollah. The risk of direct Israeli-Iranian confrontation is critically high.

Its large armed forces, valuable economic assets, and intensive pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile capabilities make it a vexing global challenge. Its provision of ballistic missiles and other military support for Russian aggression in Ukraine indicates a hardening alliance of revisionist states intent on breaking international norms and rule of law. Against this backdrop, Iranian citizens have courageously taken to the streets to protest the regime, inspired by Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian woman who was murdered by Iran’s morality police in September 2022 for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. The protests have spotlighted for the world the human costs of Iran’s clerical rule, economic mismanagement, and the internationally imposed sanctions regime.

A nuclear-armed Iran may be more emboldened to double down on these malign activities and the introduction of Iranian nuclear weapons to the current situation in the Middle East heightens the risk of catastrophic destruction. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal between Iran and several world powers including the United States, effectively and verifiably lengthened Iran’s breakout time, blocked Iran’s pathways to weapons-grade plutonium, and limited enriched uranium stockpiles. President Trump’s reckless withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2019 has allowed Iran’s program to advance without limits and put the world on a dangerous and confrontational path with Iran. Time is running out to stop Iran before it has enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon. The Biden Administration came very close to arrangements to return to the Iran Nuclear Deal, but negotiations stalled in the Fall of 2022. Little stands between Iran’s capacity to produce a nuclear weapon and the decision to actually build one.

The election of Masoud Pezeshkian following the death of Ebhrahim Raisi in a shocking helicopter crash has raised some cautious optimism about new opportunities for diplomacy and de-escalation. The new reformist President has publicly indicated readiness for a new nuclear deal and renewed dialogue with the West. However, the environment for this diplomacy is complicated by difficult domestic politics in Iran, the United States, and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and beyond.