Washington D.C. — Today marks the expiration of New START, the last remaining bilateral arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, and the first time that there will be no arms control treaty between our countries in almost 40 years. Negotiated in 2010, New START maintained verifiable limits on nuclear forces by the United States and Russia, who combined possess nearly 90% of all nuclear warheads in the world. These guardrails not only solidified a win for nuclear arms control, but they bolstered our security by increasing transparency and predictability for more stable and reliable nuclear deterrence.
Today we enter a far more unpredictable nuclear future. Russia and China are expanding their nuclear arsenals and there are growing pressures in the United States to expand nuclear capabilities to catch up, putting us on an uncharted path to contend with a three-way arms race for the first time. In parallel, new nuclear proliferation incentives are on the rise as states grapple with global insecurity and uncertainty. While breaking news today suggests that the United States and Russia are discussing a temporary deal to continue to observe the terms of the expired treaty, an agreement remains tenuous.
“It does not serve U.S. national security interests to have to address the Chinese nuclear build-up while simultaneously facing a rapid Russian upload campaign” says Rose Gottemoeller, former Chief U.S. Negotiator of the New START Treaty and FP4A Advisory Board Member. “The Russians have the capacity and experience to succeed in such a campaign. It will be much better for us to keep them limited for at least another year while we continue to plan and prepare for the Chinese threat.”
“Without New START constraints we could soon see a trilateral nuclear arms race (Russia, China, U.S.) that will exceed in cost and risk the arms race of the Cold War” says Thomas Countryman, former Acting Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security and FP4A Board Member. “Rather than issuing public demands for China to join US-Russia negotiations, the President should authorize experienced professionals to begin immediate negotiations with Moscow, and at the same time to begin bilateral consultations with China.”
“President Trump has called nuclear weapons ‘the single greatest threat to this world.’ He is right. He should take bold action to prevent an unrestrained arms race and an unparalleled and existential threat” says Ambassador Laura Kennedy, Former U.S. Permanent Representative to the Conference of Disarmament in Geneva and FPAF Board Member. “Restore some guardrails and initiate serious dialogues on strategic stability with Russia and China.”
Foreign Policy for America believes that arms control and nonproliferation are core components to American national security. Diplomacy, risk reduction, and security cooperation have long served American interests. We encourage the United States to take a bold diplomatic step and continue to observe New START limits together with Russia, pursue dialogue to restore transparency and constraints, and lay the groundwork for a new arms control framework that addresses today’s security environment.
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